Like everything else these days, reopening schools has become just another issue for political cultists to fight about. The lack of nuanced leadership based on an objective view of what we know and what we don’t is, and I say this with extreme understatement, disappointing. My family is re-engaging with most of the pre-COVID activities of life, and I wanted to write down the reasons why.
First, the things I think are proven:
- The risk of death posed to school age children by COVID is less than other risks of other illnesses that we have always accepted. The CDC’s current estimated COVID infection fatality rate or “IFR” (number of deaths/number infected) for age 0 to 19 years is 0.00003. To put that in perspective, the IFR of the 2017-18 influenza season for age 5-17, based on CDC data, is 0.00007. (I picked the 2017-18 flu season just because it was the last one with full data on the CDC’s flu website. Different years have slightly different numbers, but not enough to change the conclusion. There may also be differences in testing for COVID v. influenza, so this may not be a true apples-to-apples comparison, but I think the general patterns likely hold.)
- The risk of death posed to parents and young teachers by COVID is about the same as the flu. The IFR for COVID for ages 20-49 is 0.0002. The IFR for the 2017-18 flu for ages 18-49 was 0.0002.
- The risk of death posed to older people by COVID is greater than the flu. The COVID IFR for ages 50-69 is 0.005. The 2017-18 flu IFR for ages 50-64 was 0.0005. For people 70+ the COVID IFR is 0.054 and for people 65+ the 2017-18 flu IFR was 0.009.
- The risk of severe COVID complications is significantly affected by “comorbidities” including cancer, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunocompromised state, serious heart conditions, sickle cell disease, Type 2 diabetes, and obesity (defined as a BMI of 30 or higher).
- Among those who die from COVID, over 90% have at least one comorbidity. Here is the CDC report with the data. Thus, for healthy people the risks are probably an order of magnitude lower than stated above.
Things I think data show are likely, but not settled:
- A significant portion (maybe half) of the population has pre-existing resistance to COVID. A paper in Science showed that blood samples taken before COVID existed have T cells that are cross reactive with COVID.
- A significant portion of people who have COVID are asymptomatic. Studies suggest that asymptomatic people may be contagious but to a lesser extent. Its unclear whether asymptomatic children are contagious.
- Some people report long term effects. It is unclear what is happening here, and I have not found a study that sorts it out, including all the potentially complicating factors. But it does appear that some people report COVID symptoms for months.
- Masks may help reduce transmission if properly worn. Unclear whether the actual real world “wearing” of masks by people has much effect. Pretty sure that having kids wear masks is useless, based on years of observing kids.
- Outdoor activities have a significantly lower risk of COVID transmission. Not only is there more spacing and airflow, but COVID does not live long outside. There are a bunch of primary studies showing this, but DHS has an interesting “SARS-Cov2 Airborne Decay Calculator”. As I type this in Austin Texas it shows the 99% virus decay at about 23 minutes, with the 50% decay at just 3:30.
The big thing that the politicians assume but for which I have strong doubts:
“We will have an effective vaccine in the near future.” Maybe. We don’t have a fully effective vaccine for the flu and there are no vaccines for other coronaviruses. I think it much more likely that COVID is an endemic part of our world for at least the next few years than its eradicated through a vaccine.
Things on the other side of the ledger:
Not living our lives has real costs that are not reflected in the COVID count. What is the damage to relationships because we cannot be physically close? How many people have spiraled into depression? How many have become addicted to alcohol or drugs? How many committed suicides? How many grandparents have been unable to hug their grandkids while a half a year of life has slipped through the hourglass, with not that many grains of sand left? How many kids for whom school was the island of stability are adrift? How many students who without resources and diligent parents fell ever further behind – and are still falling – because “virtual” learning is useless to them? These harms are difficult to quantify but they are real. And we each need to give them appropriate weight in deciding how to proceed.
Why I am pretty much done with COVID:
We are presented with a virus that is a low risk to healthy kids and most adults, but which can be dangerous for older people and unhealthy people. I don’t want to get it, but I am not terrified of getting it. Our immediate household is low risk, but we have parents and other friends and relatives who are older, so we need to be mindful. This is the situation for the foreseeable future.
The benefits of (smartly) reengaging in activities appear worth it considering those risks. For us that means outdoor sports are on. The kids can hang out with other kids outside. During the online school lunch break we let my son ride his bike to the school playground to have real recess with the other fifth grade boys. Scouting activities are on, all outside, where they should be. We are going camping with friends. We have made plans to get on a plane as a family, and I have already flown. We will likely be sending our kids back to school in person as soon as real school is an option, instead of half-baked come to school and do computer learning.
If there is one lesson that 2020 has taught us, it’s that nothing is certain. There are no riskless choices, just choices with different risks. And the risk of living a big chunk of life without doing things that are some the best things in life is bigger than the risk of a virus.
At least that’s what I think today.
Vamonos Baby! 
2 thoughts on “Its Time”